What We Think We Know
-- Posted by Neil H. Buchanan I did not plan it this way, but my last two Verdict columns ( here and here), and their associated Dorf on Law posts ( here and here ), had a common theme: challenging the conventional wisdom about certain facts. When John Kenneth Galbraith coined the term "conventional wisdom," he was mostly talking about commonly held beliefs about broad policy questions, not about basic facts. For example, it became the conventional wisdom in the late 1980s that "Reagan ended inflation." That is a highly debatable proposition, but it is not falsifiable in the sense that a simple factual assertion can be checked or falsified. Did the sun rise in the South this morning? Who won last night's game? Then there are policy-relevant beliefs about facts. What is most interesting is when the evidence simply does not line up with our widely-held beliefs about what the evidence says -- or what it "must certainly" say. Consider four recent