Guest Post by Eric Segall: The Real Reason So Many Law Professors Failed to Predict the Favorable Reception of the Commerce Clause Argument in the Health Care Case
By Eric Segall There has been a lot of talk on various blogs about David Hyman's forthcoming article detailing how many law professors and others wrongly predicted how the Court would decide the commerce clause issue in the ACA case. It is true that almost every law professor who decided to make a prediction about the case opined the Court would uphold the mandate under the combination of the commerce clause and the necessary and proper clause. And, as Professor Hyman points out, these predictions were uttered alongside high pitched and adamant statements about the frivolous nature of the arguments against the mandate. For what it is worth, and relevant to the thesis of this short piece, I argued both that the arguments against the mandate were frivolous, and that the Court might nevertheless strike it down. That I could be right on both points should not be surprising. Professor Hyman’s article fails to dig deeply enough into the most obvious reason for the disconnect bet